PARIS (Reuters) – Consultancy Strategie Grains has further lowered its forecast for rapeseed, sunflower and EU crops this year, limiting the expected supply of oilseeds in the bloc.

In its latest monthly forecast, Strategie Grains estimated production of rapeseed, the EU’s main oilseed crop, at 18.9m tonnes, down from 19.3m tonnes forecast the previous month and down 2 .7% from 19.4 million last month. year.

Rapeseed harvests were particularly disappointing in France, Germany and Romania, the France-based consultancy said in a report.

For sunflower seeds, Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for this year’s harvest from 10.5 million to 10.3 million tonnes, although this is about 10% higher than 2022 production.

For soybeans, which like sunflowers are harvested after summer, the consultancy lowered its monthly production forecast from 2.87 million to 2.84 million tonnes, still about 14% above the forecast. last year’s level.

Reduced rapeseed supply would be partially offset by imports, with expected shipments from Australia and Ukraine revised upwards, the company said.

Australian availability should be supported by ample stocks and reasonable crop prospects, despite drought in some areas, according to the company.

Ukraine’s supply is expected to be supported by a record harvest and continued trade flows despite the closure of a Black Sea grain corridor, with Ukrainian rapeseed being shipped to the north and west of the EU by rail , competitive with domestic supply, said Strategie Grains.

Supply pressure from the upcoming Canadian crop, as well as South American soybean crops in early 2024, could cap rapeseed prices in the EU, with May 2024 futures contracts on Euronext having a potential drop of €25 per metric ton, he added.

(Reporting by Gus Trompiz)